Texas Rangers ace Jacob deGrom (8-2, 2.08 ERA) has displayed remarkable performance this season, especially in June. He threw 32 innings over five games last month, allowing only five earned runs, resulting in an impressive 1.41 ERA. DeGrom is set to compete against Brandon Young (0-2, 7.11 ERA) and the Baltimore Orioles at 8:05 p.m. ET.
For deGrom, the leading sportsbooks have set his total strikeout prop at 7.5, while Young’s is 3.5. Both pitchers are highlighted as the only two 5-star strikeout props according to the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates each MLB game 10,000 times.
Here are the standout strikeout props for Tuesday’s games:
Shane Baz Under 6.5 strikeouts (-152) vs. Athletics (7:05 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.1 strikeouts
The projections indicate that the line set by sportsbooks is overly high. The Rays right-handed pitcher (8-3, 4.37) has fallen under 6.5 strikeouts in 13 of his 16 starts this season, including 12 of his last 13. Additionally, Baz’s ERA is notably higher at home (5.70) compared to his road performance (2.91). He has averaged just 3.8 strikeouts per home game in his last five outings.
Jacob deGrom Under 7.5 strikeouts (-143) vs. Orioles (8:05 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 5.7 strikeouts
The model continues to caution against betting on deGrom, who has surpassed this strikeout figure only three times in his last 19 starts dating back to the previous season. His strikeout percentage has seen a continuous decline from a peak of 45.1% in 2021, dropping to 25.9% this year. Baltimore will face deGrom for the second time in less than a week, after he struck out seven in 7 innings against them last Wednesday.
Brandon Young Over 3.5 strikeouts (-115) vs. Rangers (8:05 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 5 strikeouts
Young, a rookie right-hander for the Orioles, will take the mound against Texas, stepping in for Charlie Morton (elbow tendinitis). Despite having made only three major league starts this season and going over 3.5 strikeouts just once, Young has showcased his swing-and-miss potential in the minors, notching 332 strikeouts in 282 innings. He is facing a Texas line-up that has struggled this season, with a .226 batting average and a .656 OPS.
