Unexpected Predictions for the 2025 Open Championship from a Proven Model

The Open Championship has been hosted at 14 unique courses across the UK throughout its 153 years, with Royal Portrush being the sole venue in Northern Ireland. The Dunluce Links at Royal Portrush will host the British Open for the third time ever, starting on Thursday, July 17. Shane Lowry was the winner in 2019 when this event last took place here, yet he is considered a longshot for 2025 at odds of +2100.

The top betting favorite is Scottie Scheffler at +380, followed closely by Northern Irish golfer Rory McIlroy at +700. Jon Rahm is positioned at +1200, while both Xander Schauffele and Bryson DeChambeau have equal odds of +2000. Before finalizing your picks for the 2025 Open Championship, check out the predictions and projected leaderboard from SportsLine’s proven computer model.

SportsLine’s proprietary model, designed by DFS expert Mike McClure, has been exceptionally accurate since the PGA Tour recommenced in June 2020, accumulating over $8,500 in profit from its best bets since then.

This same model also accurately predicted 15 majors, including the 2025 Masters—its fourth consecutive Masters pick—and the 2025 PGA Championship. Followers of its betting picks have seen impressive returns on various betting sites as well. New users can take advantage of the latest FanDuel promo code, DraftKings promo code, and Fanatics Sportsbook promo code.

As the 2025 Open Championship field is confirmed, SportsLine ran 10,000 simulations of the tournament, yielding surprising outcomes. Visit SportsLine for the projected leaderboard.

2025 Open Championship Predictions

One significant surprise from the model: Rory McIlroy, a five-time major champion and favorite, is projected to struggle and barely make it into the top five. McIlroy, who won The Open in 2014, missed the cut in last year’s tournament and did not fare well in his previous appearance at Royal Portrush either, which was during the 2019 British Open.

After clinching the career Grand Slam at the Masters earlier this year, McIlroy’s recent form has faltered; he finished 47th in the PGA Championship and 19th at the U.S. Open, marking the second instance in the last dozen years that he has finished outside the top 15 in two successive majors. He is not viewed as a probable winner, with many other competitors presenting better opportunities in the 2025 Open Championship field.

Another unexpected turn: Justin Thomas, a 45-1 longshot, is expected to make a strong title run. His odds suggest he shouldn’t be a strong contender, yet his recent performance—now ranked No. 4 in the world, with 16 career wins including seven top-10 finishes—positions him well. Thomas performed admirably at Royal Portrush, finishing 11th in his last appearance. His exceptional putting average and birdie average make him a valuable longshot to consider for your betting strategies.

The model will spotlight three more golfers with odds of 22-1 or longer who are predicted to be serious contenders for the title. Anyone who supports these longshots could potentially win big. Here’s how to make your picks.

Who will triumph in the 2025 Open Championship, and which underdogs will shock the golfing community? Review the 2025 Open Championship odds below and then visit SportsLine for the projected leaderboard, backed by the model that accurately predicted 15 major wins, including the last four Masters.

2025 Open Championship Odds and Favorites

Scottie Scheffler +380
Rory McIlroy +700
Jon Rahm +1200
Bryson DeChambeau +2000
Tommy Fleetwood +2000
Xander Schauffele +2000
Tyrrell Hatton +2000
Shane Lowry +2100
Robert MacIntyre +2400
Viktor Hovland +2600
Collin Morikawa +2600
Ludvig Aberg +2900
Justin Thomas +4500
Brooks Koepka +4500
Justin Rose +4700
Joaquin Niemann +4800
Matt Fitzpatrick +5000
Russell Henley +5000
Cameron Young +5000
Adam Scott +5500
Sepp Straka +5500
Ryan Fox +5500
Jordan Spieth +5500
Patrick Cantlay +5500
Hideki Matsuyama +6000
Jason Day +6000
Corey Conners +6500
Aaron Rai +6500
Ben Griffin +6500
Patrick Reed +6500
Thomas Detry +7500
Wyndham Clark +8000
Alex Noren +8000
Louis Oosthuizen +8000
J.J. Spaun +8000
Sam Burns +8500
Min Woo Lee +8500
Keegan Bradley +9000
Brian Harman +9500
Thriston Lawrence +9500
Sahith Theegala +10000
Victor Perez +10000
Davis Thompson +10000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +10000
Cameron Smith +10000