The New York Yankees will aim to level the Subway Series as they face the New York Mets this Saturday afternoon. The Mets secured a close victory with a score of 6-5 on Friday. The Yankees are anticipated to start [Carlos Rodon](https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2138665/carlos-rodon/) (9-5, 2.95 ERA), while the Mets will counter with [Frankie Montas](https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2117122/frankie-montas/) Jr. (0-1, 6.00 ERA).
First pitch at Citi Field is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. The Yankees are listed as -142 favorites (bet $142 to win $100), while the Mets are underdogs at +119 (bet $100 to win $119). The total runs over/under is set at 9. Notably, the Mets have triumphed in seven of their last ten encounters with the Yankees.
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, has indicated a profitable trend with a record of 39-30 on top-rated MLB money-line [betting](https://www.cbssports.com/betting/) picks as the season progresses. For those utilizing [sportsbooks](https://www.cbssports.com/betting/news/sportsbook-promos/) and [betting apps](https://www.cbssports.com/betting/news/best-betting-apps/), or any new users leveraging the latest DraftKings promo code or Fanatics Sportsbook promo code, the results have been favorable.
Model’s Best Bets for Yankees vs. Mets (odds may vary):
- Yankees to win (-142)
- Mets run line +1.5 (-137)
- [Aaron Judge](https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2071264/aaron-judge/), Yankees, over 1.5 total bases (-135)
Yankees to Win (-142)
The Yankees are on the lookout to break a five-game losing streak, striving to avoid matching their longest losing stretch of the season. Both teams have faced difficulties lately, as the Mets lost four of their last seven games. Rodon has had an impressive run, winning eight out of his last ten games and allowing three or fewer earned runs in each of his last four starts.
According to the model’s simulations, the Yankees have nearly a 60% average money-line probability of winning, highlighting their value at these odds.
Mets Run Line +1.5 (-128)
In recent seasons, the Mets have claimed victories in six of their eight showdowns against the Yankees, including all three encounters at Citi Field. With the best home record in MLB at 31-13 and the Yankees at a mediocre 22-22 on the road, the model suggests that the Mets are likely to cover the run line.
Aaron Judge, Yankees, over 1.5 total bases (-135)
Judge has been on a hot streak lately with hits in five of the last six games, including four multi-hit performances. In the previous game against the Mets, he recorded two hits out of four at-bats, including a home run. With projections of 2.5 total bases for Judge, this bet carries a five-star rating from the model, offering a sharp edge based on his probabilities.
