Let’s clarify a key point: Saquon Barkley showed no signs of deterioration. When examining his performance in the Super Bowl, it’s evident that the Chiefs effectively contained him, not due to his decline in skills. Despite that, he ran for 2,504 yards, the most recorded in both a season and postseason combined in NFL history.

Barkley delivered 17 explosive runs over 20 yards—only Derrick Henry had more (19)—and an impressive 13 rushing touchdowns, marking a personal best. His outstanding explosive play is uplifting for his prospects of being selected in Round 1.

However, exercising caution is advised when considering Barkley as the first overall pick or the initial running back drafted. Barkley’s career-high last year also equated to the most demanding, with 482 total touches. That record places him among the six running backs with the highest rushing attempts in a single season since 1970.

Examining the historical patterns of running backs following such a grueling season reveals it’s common for them to suffer declines. They are athletes, not machines, vulnerable to fatigue and injury. This pattern of decreased output is evident in Barkley’s past performances, especially considering his extensive workload last season, suggesting a more cautious approach to his drafting.

As history shows:

1. Only three of the previous 24 running backs posting over 400 carries per year maintained or exceeded their previous production levels the following year, and of them, only two were aged 28 or older.
2. Barkley is also notable for his past encounters with heavy usage: after a historic rookie campaign in which he achieved an average of 24.1 PPR points per game, his following season yielded a drop in results, as did subsequent high carry seasons.
3. The trend persists, indicating that heavy workloads lead to diminished returns and increased risk of injury.

In fantasy terms, while Barkley remains a captivating talent, it’s prudent to adjust expectations accordingly and contemplate drafting strategies for the upcoming season.