ATLANTA – Why does it seem like the race for the National League Most Valuable Player is over? Why do so many people believe it’s a foregone conclusion? Is it due to narrative? Star power?

Most observers think Shohei Ohtani is destined to win the NL MVP award, as reflected by odds from DraftKings:

• Ohtani -1100
• Pete Crow-Armstrong +700
• Juan Soto +2000
• Kyle Tucker +5000

According to these odds, the race appears settled without further discussion. Ohtani would undoubtedly be a worthy recipient given his two-way talents, arguably making him the best player in baseball.

But has he truly performed as the most valuable player in the NL this season? I’m starting to doubt that. At this juncture, I’d rather put my money on PCA.

Ohtani remains one of the league’s elite offensive players, winning MVP the previous year solely as a designated hitter — a testament to his value on offense. The rationale for his early lead in MVP conversations this season is the addition of his pitching capabilities. Yet, he has pitched only nine innings so far. While those innings have been impressive (1.00 ERA, 0.4 WAR), how valuable is that in 97 Dodgers games?

Thus, we’re left evaluating a DH, albeit an extraordinary one, who comes with just nine innings of pitching under his belt. He does lead the league in runs, home runs, slugging, and OPS.

In previous seasons, when Ohtani played both as a hitter and pitcher full-time, MVP arguments centered on his overall contribution to both offense and defensive support. This year, however, the latter nearly amounts to just those nine innings.

On the other hand, there’s a compelling argument for PCA as the best position player in baseball, especially considering baserunning and defense. He excels defensively, patrolling vast areas of the Cubs outfield. Conversely, Ohtani does not play defense. While last season he was the first-ever to achieve a 50-50 season, he only has 12 steals compared to Crow-Armstrong’s 27 this year.

So, how does Ohtani’s hitting compare against PCA’s when weighing their defensive shortcomings and modest differences in baserunning? Ohtani’s statistics: .276/.382/.605, 174 OPS+, 12 2B, 7 3B, 32 HR, 60 RBI. PCA’s numbers show .265/.302/.544, 140 OPS+, 21 2B, 4 3B, 25 HR, and 71 RBI. Ohtani is the superior hitter, but is he so much better to overshadow PCA’s substantial advantages on defense and baserunning?

It’s complicated to calculate overall contributions, yet we utilize WAR as a standard. It’s worth stating that WAR is often contentious. A small lead in WAR shouldn’t solely dictate a player’s superiority, but it does offer a whole-season summary. Here’s how Ohtani and PCA stack up in their WAR for 2025:

FanGraphs WAR:
PCA: 4.9
Ohtani: 4.3

Baseball Reference WAR:
PCA: 5.2
Ohtani: 4.3

The WAR metrics can differ based on used defensive stats, explaining PCA’s higher figures. Nevertheless, their numbers are outside the margin of error.

In conclusion, Ohtani is indeed the better hitter, but PCA offers elite defensive skills and base running and is closely trailing in hitting stats. And in terms of WAR, both metrics indicate that PCA has been more valuable this season. So, why do many think Ohtani has secured the MVP title without question?

It shouldn’t be accepted so easily. It remains a competitive race, and at this point, I’d choose PCA.