Two teams eyeing playoff spots face off on Friday as the Detroit Tigers and Philadelphia Phillies commence a three-game series at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. The Tigers (64-46) share the best record in the American League with the Blue Jays and lead the AL Central by nine games, while the Phillies (61-47) are just half a game behind the Mets in the National League East.
The pitching duel features Jack Flaherty (6-10, 4.51 ERA) for Detroit against left-hander Ranger Suarez (8-4, 2.59) from Philadelphia. Flaherty recently shone with six scoreless innings against the Blue Jays, while Suarez has only allowed one run across 5 2/3 innings versus the Yankees.
Top sportsbooks have established player props for Flaherty at 6.5 strikeouts and for Suárez at 5.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which runs simulations of all MLB games 10,000 times, views both Flaherty’s Over 6.5 and Suárez’s Over 5.5 as solid 3.5-star bets on a scale of five.
Nevertheless, the model has identified even more favorable betting options on Friday’s busy slate. Here are three pitcher strikeout props rated 4.5 stars by the model:
Michael Wacha Over 3.5 strikeouts vs. Blue Jays (7:07 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.6 strikeouts
Wacha (4-9, 3.53) has surpassed 3.5 strikeouts in 15 of 21 starts this season, including three of the last four games. He averaged 4.6 strikeouts per match in the last 10 games, yielding just three earned runs in his last three outings covering 16⅓ innings.
Shane Smith Over 3.5 strikeouts vs. Angels (9:38 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.6 strikeouts
Back from an ankle injury, the White Sox All-Star Smith (3-7, 4.26) faces a Angels lineup responsible for the highest average strikeouts at 9.67 per game.
Anthony DeSclafani Over 3.5 strikeouts vs. Athletics (10:05 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.7 strikeouts
DeSclafani took a starting spot after Merrill Kelly was traded. The veteran’s track record includes averaging over a strikeout per inning since joining Arizona.
