An AFC East clash will occur on Thursday Night Football in Week 3 as the Miami Dolphins visit the Buffalo Bills. Miami (0-2) appeared lackluster in its season opener, and while it performed better in a Week 2 loss to New England, the team is still 0-2 for the first time since 2019. In contrast, Buffalo (2-0) achieved a spectacular comeback in Week 1 followed by a convincing win against the Jets in Week 2. Bills coach Sean McDermott boasts a 9-0 record against the Dolphins at home, including playoffs.
Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. Buffalo enters as an 11.5-point favorite in the latest Dolphins vs. Bills odds, marking the largest favorites of the 2025 NFL season if it holds. The total points over/under stands at 50.5. For the money line, Buffalo is -826 (risk $826 to win $100), while Miami is +560 (risk $100 to win $560).
Before making any picks for Bills vs. Dolphins, check out what the SportsLine projection model indicates.
Why the Bills can cover
Josh Allen has historically dominated against Miami, especially in recent matchups, boasting a 16:3 TD:INT ratio over his last six regular-season games against the Dolphins. He averages 292.8 passing yards and 36.2 rushing yards during this timeframe, while Tua Tagovailoa has struggled—recording nine touchdowns against ten interceptions in his career versus this rival.
This season, Buffalo’s offense has shown to be one of the best in the league, not committing any turnovers while ranking first in total offense and second in scoring. James Cook shined against the Jets with 132 rushing yards and two touchdowns, including a notable 44-yard touchdown run. This was his fifth run of over 40 yards since the start of 2024, making him the leader in that category. Additionally, the Bills’ defense has performed well, limiting New York to just 154 total yards, significantly less than their own 224 rushing yards in Week 2.
Why the Dolphins can cover
While Buffalo has prevailed in their recent matchups directly, the Dolphins have performed well against the spread. Buffalo holds only one ATS win against Miami in their last five home games, with the Dolphins covering in their last visit to Buffalo. The Bills’ run defense presents a weakness, ranking in the bottom two for yards allowed and average per carry. This could benefit Miami’s De’Von Achane, who has averaged 116.8 scrimmage yards with six touchdowns across four career games against Buffalo.
Following a rough Week 1, Miami’s offense finally began to click in Week 2, with Tagovailoa achieving 315 yards and two passing touchdowns, while Tyreek Hill amassed 109 yards on six receptions. Jaylen Waddle also contributed significantly with a touchdown catch. Additionally, Miami received a boost from Malik Washington, who returned a punt for a 74-yard touchdown. Notably, the significant spread is one that has proven troublesome for Buffalo, who are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as double-digit favorites.
How to make Bills vs. Dolphins picks
For Thursday Night Football in Week 3, the model is leaning towards betting the over and indicates that one side of the spread has a nearly 60% success rate in an A-rated pick.
