Forecasting Free Agency Deals for Top MLB Players

As Major League Baseball’s free-agent market officially opens, it’s the perfect time to forecast contract values for the top ten players in this year’s class.

While predicting baseball contracts can often feel like a shot in the dark, careful analysis allows for a reasonable estimation of terms through historical context, inflation, and factors like player age and performance history. This year marks my third attempt at this predictive exercise. Previously, I achieved an average of $4.5 million off on seven out of ten contracts, and last year improved to within $2 million for five players.

1. OF Kyle Tucker

Tucker, a well-rounded talent, is coming off two injury-affected seasons but remains highly sought after. A comparison to elite outfielders suggests he could fetch more than $30 million annually.

Prediction: 12 years, $408 million ($34 million AAV)

2. 3B Alex Bregman

Bregman’s recent contracts have favored short-term agreements, giving him flexibility to maximize his earnings. His next deal might top the last major contract signed by Matt Chapman.

Prediction: Six years, $192 million ($32 million AAV)

3. SS/2B Bo Bichette

Bichette’s defensive capabilities will determine his market value, drawing parallels to Willy Adames’ recent contract.

Prediction: Seven years, $189 million ($27 million AAV)

4. LHP Framber Valdez

Valdez’s camp is expected to push for a lucrative long-term deal, echoing the contract reached by Max Fried with the Yankees.

Prediction: Seven years, $189 million ($27 million AAV)

5. DH Kyle Schwarber

Schwarber’s hitting prowess may secure him a deal similar to Teoscar Hernández but with a longer duration.

Prediction: Four years, $104 million ($26 million AAV)

6. OF/1B Cody Bellinger

Bellinger’s career has faced ups and downs, making his contract expectations unpredictable.

Prediction: Five years, $125 million ($25 million AAV)

7. 3B/1B Munetaka Murakami

Murakami is the ultimate wild card, expected to garner significant interest due to his potential despite some doubts about his defense.

Prediction: Six years, $140 million ($23.3 million AAV)

8. LHP Shota Imanaga

Imanaga could see a contract reflective of Nathan Eovaldi’s last year, depending on market dynamics.

Prediction: Two years, $50 million ($25 million AAV)

9. 1B Pete Alonso

Alonso’s opted-out deal presents challenges, but he might still score significant value if he finds the right contract structures.

Prediction: Four years, $108 million ($27 million AAV)

10. LHP Ranger Suárez

Recent contracts for mid-rotation starters set a precedent for Suárez’s expected deal.

Prediction: Five years, $125 million ($25 million AAV)