Welcome to Vegas! For the third time in as many seasons, the NBA Cup is shifting to Sin City for its dramatic conclusion, and the league couldn’t have asked for a more compelling group of finalists. The defending champion (June variety) Oklahoma City Thunder, the league’s brightest young star Victor Wembanyama, the Eastern Conference favorite New York Knicks, and the Orlando Magic, who are now 14-6 since their 1-4 start.

The players on our four finalists have all earned at least six figures, but there’s still quite a bit of money on the line. Semifinals losers will pocket $102,994 per player, while the loser of the championship game doubles that figure for $205,988. The winner of the whole tournament walks away with $514,971 per player, but be honest, you’re more interested in how you can make money off of this thing than the players. Fortunately, we’ve got you covered. Below are our best bets for both semifinal matchups on Saturday.

Orlando Magic vs. New York Knicks

The Magic have developed a reputation for playing through injuries lately, but which injuries are essential here? The Magic turned their season around with Paolo Banchero sidelined, but since his rookie year, they are 31-27 without him in the lineup. Now Banchero is back, but just like last season, Franz Wagner got hurt soon after. That’s a tougher injury for the Magic to stomach. Orlando is 13-22 without Wagner in the lineup in that same span. This season, Magic lineups featuring Banchero but no Wagner have been outscored by 5.7 points per 100 possessions, so the safe pick here is the Knicks, especially now that OG Anunoby is back in the fold. The Pick: Knicks -5.5

I’m leaning under for several reasons. There’s the fact that this is a big game in an unusual environment that tips at a weird time (2:30 local), and that could lead to shooting struggles as players deal with the disturbance to their routine. We have a relatively slow Knicks team on one end of the floor and a Magic team that will be playing hard on the other, seeking some measure of revenge after Wagner got hurt against New York. Plus, history shows every NBA Cup game in Vegas that did not involve Tyrese Haliburton went under this total. Granted, that’s only four games, so take it with a grain of salt, but as seen last postseason, Haliburton is immune to pressure. Everyone else seems to play a bit tight under the bright lights, so altogether, I have a slight under lean. The Pick: Under 224.5

Now let’s talk about Paolo Banchero. He has averaged 22.8 shots per game in his playoffs career. Is this a playoff game? No. But he tends to be more shot-happy in big games, which this one qualifies as, especially with Wagner out. So I’m going to take Banchero’s over on the basis of volume. He’ll put up a lot of shots and hit enough to hit the over. The Pick: Banchero Over 22.5 Points

San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

If you want to know who’s going to win this game? You should pick the Thunder, as they’ve only lost once. Picking them to lose is irresponsible. Picking their opponent to cover? That’s feasible. The Thunder are only 14-11 against the spread. In fairness, that’s mostly because their spreads are typically massive, and that’s the case here. The Spurs are 10.5-point underdogs. They’ve only lost three games by double digits all season and have never lost by more than 13. The Spurs don’t get blown out. Their three-headed guard monster of De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, and Dylan Harper effectively counters Oklahoma City’s ball-pressure. The Spurs are low-turnover and draw fouls, which is useful against the Thunder. Plus, Victor Wembanyama is expected back, adding more intrigue here. The Pick: Spurs +10.5

Despite the Thunder ranking just 15th in pace for the season, they are fourth since Jalen Williams returned. Their lowest-scoring game since then, a blowout over the Suns, totaled 227 points, half a point under this game’s total. They’ve surpassed it in their five other games since Williams’ return. The Thunder may have a historic defense, but if both teams push the pace, points will accumulate quickly, even if they aren’t always efficient. The Pick: Over 227.5

Expectations for Wembanyama’s performance don’t need to be tempered due to a minutes limit. Historically, he averages over 30 minutes in games returning from absence. Sure, he has never returned from an absence of this duration before, but the Spurs typically give him his usual workload in return games. Wembanyama thrives in big moments and is likely eager to showcase his skills, especially against Chet Holmgren. Expect fireworks from him. The Pick: Wembanyama Over 17.5 Points