SportsLine NFL expert Jeff Hochman’s strategy proved effective in Week 14, with the New Orleans Saints and Las Vegas Raiders both covering the spread, and he scored one out of two in Week 15. The Houston Texans dominated the Arizona Cardinals, who were favored by 9.5 points, while the Washington Commanders outperformed the New York Giants as 2.5-point underdogs. Hochman’s analysis for Week 16 includes two select games worthy of focus.
NFL Teams Bouncing Back After Shutout Losses
- Win Rate: 31-12-4 ATS (72.1%)
- Sample Size: Since 2011
- Criteria: Teams scoring zero points in the preceding week
- Edge: Non-Division games; Week 11 or later
Why This Works?
This system focuses on teams that had a zero-score week prior and are facing a non-divisional opponent in Week 11 or later. In this scenario, teams have covered the spread 31 out of 47 times, winning by an average margin of 1.8 points. Following a shutout, teams typically make strategic adjustments, such as modifying their offensive plays, rearranging the lineup, or emphasizing practice fundamentals, resulting in increased motivation to perform better. Bookmakers often overlook this factor leading to potential discrepancies in the odds. With a remarkable 72.1% success rate, this system ranks among the most lucrative based on a sample size of 40 games.
Week 16 Qualifiers
- Cincinnati Bengals -4 at Miami Dolphins | Confidence: 3 out of 5
Cincinnati meets the criteria after a tough 24-0 defeat against the Baltimore Ravens as 3.5-point home underdogs. The Bengals are expected to strengthen their defense in this match. Week 16 is crucial for rookie quarterbacks as Quinn Ewers takes the lead against a Bengals defense that aims to make effective coverage adjustments.
We see Joe Burrow as a formidable presence against a team with a subpar record led by a rookie QB. Burrow’s poor performance last week, with a passer rating of merely 58.2, suggests he’s poised for a major comeback. Security in the betting line is at -4 for Cincinnati, as compared to -4.5 offered by many other sportsbooks. If you’re betting on Cincinnati, now is an optimal time to secure this number.
- Las Vegas Raiders +14 at Houston Texans | Confidence: 2.5 out of 5
After a troubling 31-0 loss, the Raiders face the challenge of a Texans defense known for its scoring prowess, allowing only 16.3 points per game. Despite the Raiders’ struggles, there are signs of hope with potential returns for players like Geno Smith.
With Houston on a six-game winning streak, their offensive performance has been consistently strong, but the matchup presents a unique challenge as both teams are evaluated by their historical performances and recent trajectories.
