Can No. 8 Oklahoma replicate the recipe that helped the Sooners defeat No. 9 Alabama earlier this season and advance in the College Football Playoff?

The rematch of one of the more surprising results of the season pits Alabama (10-3) and Oklahoma (10-2) in the first round of the College Football Playoff. Kickoff Friday is set for 8 p.m. ET. A month ago, Oklahoma used three turnovers, including a pick six, to knock off Alabama 23-21 in Tuscaloosa. The Tide nearly doubled the Sooners’ offensive output (406-212) but couldn’t overcome the turnover margin and lost their first home game in the Kalen DeBoer era.

The Sooners are chasing history in this playoff round, as no team has ever defeated Alabama twice in the same season. Oklahoma is also looking for its first playoff victory, entering with a 0-4 record all-time in the CFP.

Alabama looks noticeably different from earlier in the season when it lost to the Sooners. Up to 13 players were sidelined or limited in the SEC Championship Game two weeks ago, but many of them have returned, including running back Jam Miller.

Key Insights on Alabama vs. Oklahoma

Oklahoma’s offense is struggling: The Sooners hold the worst offense in the CFP, failing to score more than two offensive touchdowns in a game since October 25. Their top-10 defense, along with some crucial late-game performances, have pushed Oklahoma into the playoff with significant victories over ranked rivals like Tennessee and Missouri.

LT Overton likely out: Alabama’s defensive end LT Overton is expected to miss another game due to an illness or medical condition. He ranks second on the Tide with four sacks.

Alabama’s running attack: The Tide had trouble establishing any ground game during the SEC Championship Game, ending up with negative rushing yards against Georgia. Two of their three top running backs are still absent, although Miller is anticipated to return on Friday. However, he has not topped 100 rushing yards since October 4, and the Tide averages just 116.2 yards per game, the lowest among CFP teams.

Where to Watch

Date: Friday, Dec. 19 | Time: 8 p.m. ET | Location: Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium – Norman, Oklahoma | TV: ESPN | Live stream: Fubo (Try for free)

Prediction

Alabama should have prevailed against Oklahoma previously, but turnovers and a weak rushing attack led to their downfall. While I don’t expect overnight changes in the Tide’s offense, they are healthier and boast superior quarterback talent. Oklahoma finds itself as a home underdog for the first time this season, and with a total of 40.5, it stands as the lowest ever for a CFP game. Although the under has hit in Alabama’s last five outings and Oklahoma holds a 10-2 record, I believe Alabama will win without falling to Oklahoma a second time. Pick: Alabama -1