After a brief pause, UFC Fight Night returns this Saturday and will be available via Paramount+ from Houston. The main event features a showdown between two top-5 middleweights: No. 3 Sean Strickland (29-7), a former UFC middleweight champion, and No. 4 Anthony Hernandez (15-2), who has the most takedowns in the division’s history. Hernandez enters as the -290 favorite, requiring a $290 bet to win $100, while Strickland is the underdog at +235.
The main card kicks off at 8 p.m. ET from the Toyota Center, including the co-main event featuring Texas’ own Geoff Neal against Uros Medic in a welterweight clash. Neal is positioned at -218 while Medic stands at +180. Before placing any bets, it is recommended to check the MMA predictions and insights from Mike McClure’s proven computer model here.
The advanced model, which has conducted 10,000 simulations for each fight, accounts for shifting win probabilities based on fighter attributes and cumulative damage factors that enhance finish likelihood in later rounds. This model has previously shown a remarkable profit margin against a vast amount of historical fights, making it a reliable source for UFC betting advice. Check out the model’s predictions and betting picks for Strickland vs. Hernandez on SportsLine.
Strickland vs. Hernandez Preview
Strickland holds the record for most significant strikes landed in UFC history with 1,465 in the middleweight category. He joined UFC in 2014 and has seen many of his recent fights extend to the judges. Strickland’s championship win over Israel Adesanya in September 2023 secured his status, but he has since struggled with two losses. Conversely, Hector Hernandez, capturing the longest active win streak in the middleweight division, showcases a formidable background in wrestling and BJJ.
Predictions for UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez
One notable prediction from the model focuses on the co-main event: it’s expecting Over 1.5 rounds in the match between Neal and Medic, with a +130 return rated as a viable betting option. Despite both fighters possessing knockout capabilities, the model anticipates a more cautious approach early in the fight tailored by each fighter’s defensive tactics.
The model continues to support multiple underdog perspectives, along with potential bets showing rewards exceeding +500. For full insights on the betting strategies available for this card, visit SportsLine.
