Be honest: a small part of you thinks the NBA Draft lottery might be rigged, right? Don’t be embarrassed. A lot of people, on some level, believe that to be the case. One of them happens to be at the center of one such conspiracy: the No. 1 pick in the 2003 NBA Draft, LeBron James.

“During the ball drop, the lottery drop, Cleveland got the No. 1 pick?” James said in a recent interview with Pat McAfee, admittedly while laughing. “I just don’t think that — what a coincidence. Let’s keep LeBron home… I understand the assignment.”

The entire concept of a lottery conspiracy falls apart once prodded even slightly. With multiple motives and the historical patterns of draft results, it’s crucial to challenge these theories rather than accepting them based solely on their plausibility. The reality is that many conspiracies could be concocted based on whichever outcome takes place, ultimately diluting their credibility.

For example:

1. James was drafted by the Cavaliers, his hometown team.
2. If the Grizzlies would have gotten the No. 2 pick, it could be said the NBA needed them to solidify their market in Memphis.
3. Similarly, a hypothetical win by the Raptors could have been spun as the NBA wanting to promote basketball in Canada.
4. The conspiracies for top draft picks extend to many players beyond just LeBron.

Simply put, believing in such conspiracies requires a willingness to overlook the evidence against them. The lottery drawing is viewed by representatives from every participating team as well as the media. Successfully rigging even a single lottery would require secrecy from dozens of individuals with conflicting interests.

As the next NBA Draft approaches, consider how much your belief in such theories is swayed by anecdote or coincidence rather than facts.

Remember six weeks from now when the chance to draft Cooper Flagg is awarded.