Diamondbacks third baseman Eugenio Suarez launched five home runs in his initial five games but has struggled recently, failing to get a hit in four of his last five games. He faces Orioles starter Zach Eflin at 9:40 PM ET. Eflin has surrendered two home runs in his first two outings of the season. The current MLB home run odds on FanDuel Sportsbook list Suarez at +480 to smack a home run on Monday.

Dodgers hitter Shohei Ohtani, who has three home runs this season, is listed at +220 against Washington. Ohtani holds the shortest home run odds for any player today, raising the question of including him in wagers? With MLB HR props available for virtually every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s computer model aids in identifying bets with value.

The model simulates each matchup 10,000 times, boasting a 34-19 record on all its top-rated MLB picks on the run line since 2023. Now, SportsLine’s Data Scientists have shared their projections for several highly-bet MLB HR props this Monday. These three wagers can be grouped for +11699 odds, potentially paying out $584.95 with a $5 bet.

Christian Walker HR (+470)

Walker had a rough start, managing three hits across his first six outings but has bounced back with two multi-hit games in his last three tries. Last week, he recorded his first home run of the season at Minnesota, hitting a 402-foot shot off Joe Ryan in the second inning. Walker had 26 home runs in 552 appearances with Arizona last season, so consistent home runs should follow. He is 2 for 6 with one home run against Logan Gilbert, and the model sets his odds at +348 for a home run on Monday, offering good value.

Fernando Tatis Jr. HR (+400)

Despite limited action last season, Tatis managed 21 home runs with a .276 batting average over 99 starts. This season, he has one home run and a .368 batting average through 38 at-bats. He will bat against Athletics pitcher Luis Severino, who allowed 23 home runs in his last season. Historically, Tatis is 1 for 3 against Severino, but that one hit was a home run.

“We would set the line at +358 for Tatis to homer tonight in Sacramento, where the wind is expected to aid hitting,” SportsLine Data Scientist Jacob Fetner commented. “We believe Tatis is overdue for a home run after eight consecutive homerless games, yet he is hitting .368 to start".

Pete Alonso HR (+350)

The 30-year-old has tallied nine hits in 31 at-bats this season, with three home runs. Alonso has consistently ranked among power hitters since 2019, finishing in the top 13 for home runs each year. He’s going against Marlins starter Valente Bellozo, who permitted 15 home runs over just 13 starts last season.

“Alonso has three homers in his last six games, and despite the chilly weather, he’s capable of hitting home runs in any conditions,” Fetner assessed. “Considering the weather, we would set his line around +290 to hit a HR, which is good value on FanDuel compared to others.”

Looking for more MLB picks for Monday? You’ve seen the models’ players for some popular HR prop picks; now, get projections for every player prop at SportsLine.