Predictions and Analysis for the 2025 Kentucky Derby: Expert Insights
Expert Gene Menez, who successfully predicted last year's Kentucky Derby winner, shares his insights on the upcoming 2025 race, including odds and betting picks.
Four horses in this century have won the Kentucky Derby at odds of 50-1 or longer, yet there are none at that level in the 2025 field. This year features nine horses at 30-1, following the post position draw for Saturday’s race at Churchill Downs. Despite a history of longshot victories, favorites have dominated, winning 56 of the past 150 races. Journalism stands as the 3-1 favorite, having triumphed in both the San Felipe Stakes and Santa Anita Derby. The Derby post time is set for 6:57 p.m. ET.
A favorite has not clinched a win since Justify in 2018. Should you place your bets on Journalism? Before making your choices, check what Gene Menez, an expert from SportsLine, has to say.
Menez correctly identified 18-1 Mystik Dan as a live longshot last year. He also excelled in various betting scenarios in previous races, including the Holy Bull Stakes and the Florida Derby this year. He has assessed the 2025 Derby contenders and is prepared to share his top picks.
Key Predictions for the 2025 Kentucky Derby
Menez is wary of Sandman (6-1), despite his Arkansas Derby win. He warns that closers like Sandman depend heavily on a fast pace and may struggle. Menez believes that while Sandman’s victory seemed impressive, it might have inflated his perceived value.
Interestingly, Menez suggests there’s a higher chance for Sandman to finish third than to win.
To find out Menez’s choices and which horses he considers must-backs, visit SportsLine for further details.
2025 Kentucky Derby Odds and Post Positions
| Post | Horse | Odds | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Citizen Bull | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 2 | Neoequos | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 3 | Final Gambit | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 4 | Rodriguez | 12-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 5 | American Promise | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 6 | Admire Daytona | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 7 | Luxor Cafe | 15-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 8 | Journalism | 3-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 9 | Burnham Square | 12-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 10 | Grande | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 11 | Flying Mohawk | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 12 | East Avenue | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 13 | Publisher | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 14 | Tiztastic | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 15 | Render Judgement | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 16 | Coal Battle | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 17 | Sandman | 6-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 18 | Sovereignty | 5-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 19 | Chunk of Gold | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 20 | Owen Almighty | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
