2025 NASCAR at Texas odds, prediction, props, bets: Surprising Wurth 400 picks by model that called 20 winners

On Sunday, NASCAR heads to Texas Motor Speedway for the 2025 Wurth 400. Success on 1.5-mile ovals often defines a driver’s season, and Chevrolet has had surprising top-five finishers already this year. Carson Hocevar finished second in Atlanta, boasting odds as high as +1100 to finish in the top five again at BetMGM Sportsbook. Daniel Suarez is also in the mix with a +750 chance on FanDuel.

You can also bet on the race winner, with Kyle Larson as the +500 favorite in the 2025 Wurth 400 odds, set to green flag at 3:30 p.m. ET on Sunday. Before you finalize your 2025 Wurth 400 picks or create your NASCAR DFS lineups on platforms like DraftKings and FanDuel, you should check SportsLine for the latest predictions.

This prediction model, created by daily fantasy expert Mike McClure, simulates every race 10,000 times, considering factors like track history and recent results. It had a stellar start to the 2025 season, predicting that Chase Elliott would win at +300 odds in the Clash at Bowman Gray. It was also high on Byron, a +2000 longshot at Daytona, and predicted Kyle Larson’s win in Miami for a +350 payout.

In 2024, it successfully predicted Larson’s victory in Las Vegas for a 21-5 payout, and forecasted Denny Hamlin’s wins in Bristol and Richmond. Overall, the model has picked 20 winners since 2021, including nine last year. Anyone who followed its betting advice could have seen substantial returns.

Now, the model has simulated the Wurth 400 2025 race 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected leaderboard.

Top 2025 Wurth 400 predictions

The model favors Chase Briscoe as a strong longshot at +2200 odds. Though relatively new to the NASCAR Cup Series, he’s a two-time winner, looking to elevate his title contention as a member of Joe Gibbs Racing.

He currently sits 12th in the NASCAR standings, with a win and three top-five finishes this season. Additionally, he has consistently performed well at Texas Motor Speedway, placing in the top ten the last three seasons. Caesars offers the best odds for a Briscoe victory.

Moreover, there’s a surprising prop bet: Ryan Blaney is projected to finish in the top five at +130 odds at the 1.5-mile track. Known for his speed, Blaney is a 13-time Cup Series winner but has faced setbacks this season, making this a valuable bet. DraftKings offers the best price for this prop bet.

How to make 2025 NASCAR at Texas picks

The model is also looking at three other drivers with Texas NASCAR odds at 14-1 or longer who could contend for the win. Backing these drivers could yield significant returns. To see all the model’s NASCAR picks and props, visit SportsLine.

2025 NASCAR Texas odds

• Kyle Larson +500
• William Byron +600
• Tyler Reddick +750
• Denny Hamlin +800
• Christopher Bell +800
• Ryan Blaney +900
• Joey Logano +1400
• Chase Briscoe +1400
• Kyle Busch +1600
• Bubba Wallace +1800
• Chase Elliott +2000
• Alex Bowman +2200
• Ty Gibbs +2500
• Ross Chastain +2800
• Josh Berry +3000
• Chris Buescher +3000
• Brad Keselowski +3500
• Daniel Suarez +4000
• Carson Hocevar +7000
• Austin Cindric +8000
• Ryan Preece +9000
• Noah Gragson +9000
• Erik Jones +9000
• Austin Dillon +10000
• AJ Allmendinger +10000
• Michael McDowell +13000
• Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +15000
• Zane Smith +15000
• Justin Haley +20000
• John Hunter Nemechek +20000
• Jesse Love +20000
• Todd Gilliland +20000
• Riley Herbst +30000
• Cody Ware +30000
• Cole Custer +30000
• Ty Dillon +30000
• Chad Finchum +30000
• Shane Van Gisbergen +30000