Three players currently lead the MLB in home runs with 12 each this season, yet only Kyle Schwarber of the Phillies will be featured in Thursday’s games. Schwarber has hit home runs in three of his past five contests and recently delivered back-to-back multi-hit games. On Thursday, he is matched against Rays pitcher Ryan Pepiot, who has surrendered eight home runs this season. The betting line offers Schwarber at +230, meaning a $100 bet returns $230 at Caesars Sportsbook. Additionally, teammate Trea Turner, who recently notched his second home run, is listed at +380 to achieve another homer tonight.
Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani holds shorter odds than Schwarber at +187. Who should you consider for your Thursday home run betting? SportsLine’s expert model aids in pinpointing value for your MLB home run betting.
The model runs simulations for every game 10,000 times and boasts a 10-5 record on all top-rated MLB money-line picks this season, having successfully hit at least one home run prop in four of the last six days. It has generated 31.55 units from its MLB home run picks in the past month. Here are a few of the most popular bets for MLB home runs this Thursday; these picks can be combined for +10250 odds, paying out $512.50 on a $5 wager at FanDuel.
Austin Riley, Braves (+350)
Riley has consistently been among the league’s top power hitters and is on track for over 30 home runs again this season, having already tallied eight home runs, including two against the Dodgers on Sunday. His OPS is impressive at home (.966) compared to on the road (.695). Facing Reds pitcher Nick Lodolo, who has historically struggled against right-handed batters, could be a favorable matchup for Riley.
“This is a favorable matchup for Riley and when you consider the weather, which seems conducive for hitters, any odds above +300 is attractive for Riley’s homer chances tonight,” says SportsLine analyst Jacob Fetner.
Bryce Harper, Phillies (+400)
Another premier hitter from the National League East is Bryce Harper, who recently hit his sixth homer against Arizona. Although facing Pepiot, who has gone two starts without allowing a homer, he has given up seven home runs in three games prior. Harper is renowned for his success against right-handers and could exploit Pepiot despite his recent performance.
“Harper has always been effective against right-handed pitchers, and though Pepiot is statistically better against lefties, this matchup favors Harper who previously excelled against change-ups,” notes Fetner. The model considers Harper’s line at +350, presenting a value at FanDuel’s +400.
Anthony Santander, Blue Jays (+400)
Santander homered on Tuesday against the Angels, marking his fifth of the season, despite an overall batting average of .188. This 30-year-old crushed 44 homers in 2024, and all his home runs this season have been against right-handed pitchers. Given favorable conditions, this line offers plenty of potential value, likely better than the market indicates.
More MLB Today
The model has unveiled MLB HR prop bets for various players Thursday. To see projections for every player from SportsLine, continue checking their updates.
