The MLB schedule for Monday features 11 games, highlighted by the Yankees versus the Mariners at T-Mobile Park in Seattle at 9:40 p.m. ET. The Yankees, spearheaded by MVP contender Aaron Judge, boast a record of 23-17 overall and 10-9 on the road. In contrast, the Mariners hold a 22-17 overall record, with a home record of 12-9. Clarke Schmidt is expected to pitch for the Yankees, whereas Emerson Hancock will take the mound for the Mariners.
The Yankees come into the game as -148 favorites (risk $100 to win $148) on the money line, with the over/under set at 8 runs (Over -114). Should you place your bets on the Yankees this Monday? Before settling on any MLB picks or composing parlay cards, it’s wise to consult the betting advice and MLB projections from SportsLine’s validated simulation model.
SportsLine’s Simulation Model runs 10,000 simulations for every MLB game. As the 2025 season enters Week 8, it sits on a strong 12-8 record (60%) for top-tier money-line betting picks. Followers leveraging this insight via sportsbooks and betting applications have seen excellent returns.
The model has evaluated the odds for Monday and unveiled its top choices and player props. Combining its three top picks into an MLB parlay at DraftKings Sportsbook could yield a payout of +535 (risk $100 to win $535). Below are the model’s premier bets for today’s games:
Yankees-Mariners Over 8 Runs
The Yankees’ lineup poses a significant threat to surpass this total on its own. Both starting pitchers have shown inconsistency this season with less-than-stellar ERA figures. Clarke Schmidt (4.79 ERA) is anticipated to start for the Yankees, while Emerson Hancock (5.70 ERA) will start for the Mariners. The model forecasts a total of 9.3 runs for this matchup, with the Over hitting in about 58.9% of simulations.
San Francisco Giants +1.5 (-173) Against Arizona Diamondbacks
Future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander will take the mound for the Giants, bringing considerable experience compared to his Arizona counterpart, Merrill Kelly. San Francisco, having suffered three consecutive losses, aims to regain momentum at home. Projections suggest a nail-biting final score of 4.8-4.6 in favor of Arizona, but the Giants are forecasted to cover in 68% of simulations.
Aaron Judge to Hit 1+ Home Runs (+185)
Judge is having another stellar season, leading MLB with 14 home runs. The reigning AL MVP is also batting .409 entering this game. The model estimates Judge will have 1.3 hits today, and this prop pays +185 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Combine these selections for a chance at a +535 payout. Bet on it now at DraftKings and claim $200 in Bonus Bets once you wager $5.
Interested in More MLB Picks for Today?
You’ve seen the model’s leading MLB bets for Monday. Get run line, total, and money-line selections for every game right here, all sourced from a model that’s simulated each game 10,000 times.
Also available at SportsLine:
Today’s top MLB selections from expert Matt Severance, who is currently on a scorching 102-51 streak on his last 153 MLB picks. Check out SportsLine to see his top plays for today, backed by a seasoned expert who’s up over units.
