Shohei Ohtani is set to pitch for the Dodgers on Saturday against the Royals at 4:10 p.m. ET. After recovering from an elbow injury that sidelined him for the 2024 season, Ohtani is expected to pitch an inning or two. The Royals will start Seth Lugo, who has impressive stats (2.93 ERA, 1.05 WHIP) thus hinting at a potentially low-scoring game. Therefore, the model suggests betting on the Under (9.5) for this match.
On the broader Saturday MLB schedule, the model favors two underdogs. It recommends betting on the Phillies to win (+134) against the Braves and the Pirates to cover +1.5 (-129) against the Mets. Be sure to review the MLB predictions from SportsLine’s renowned computer simulation before finalizing your bets.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. Current outcomes show it has achieved a profitable 41-32 record on its highest-rated picks for the season. This season, it has been particularly adept at home run prop picks, yielding over 22 units of profit.
Combining the model’s picks at DraftKings Sportsbook could lead to a payout of +677 (wagering $100 to win $677). New users have the opportunity to use a special promo giving $150 in bonus bets with a $5 wager. Don’t forget to check out the top props and home run picks for the day.
Here are the best bets for Saturday:
- Pirates +1.5 vs. Mets (-137)
- Phillies on the money line against the Braves (+128)
- Under 9.5 runs in Dodgers vs. Royals (-103)
- Take these picks together for the potential +677 payout.
Analysis of the Picks
Pirates +1.5 vs. Mets (-137)
Bailey Falter has made fine contributions for the Pirates with a 3.59 ERA and a 6-3 record. Betting on the Pirates when Falter starts has proven profitable, bringing in +463 for money-line bettors this year. After recently beating the Mets 9-1, the Pirates hold a strong edge on the run line, winning nearly 70% of the time.
Phillies on the Moneyline vs. Braves (+128)
The Braves have struggled this season, with a -1881 return on the money line. Despite a promising start earlier in the week, they have lost three consecutive games, including a heavy 13-0 defeat to the Phillies on Friday. With Spencer Schwellenbach starting for Atlanta, the model believes the Phillies are the better bet, winning in 50% of simulations.
Under 9.5 runs in Dodgers vs. Royals (-103)
With Ohtani expected to be limited in his pitch count, the Royals are struggling offensively, averaging only 1.6 runs per game recently. Considering these factors, the Under value play appears solid as projections show the teams combining for only 8.4 runs.
More MLB Picks for Today
You can view detailed run line, total, and money-line forecasts for every game on SportsLine, backed by models that simulate each game 10,000 times. Additionally, check for top plays from expert Matt Severance, who boasts a substantial 170-100 record on his last 270 MLB picks.
