Hello to the last Friday before the MLB All-Star break. As the late, great Mel Allen would say, “How about that!?” It really doesn’t feel too long ago that the Cubs and Dodgers were kicking things off in Japan and now two teams have played 95 games this season. It’s been a fun ride, but, as always, the best is yet to come.
Enough with the lame intro, let’s get into the action.
Dodgers (+105) at Giants
This is pretty simple. The Dodgers have lost six consecutive games and they are too good to have this keep happening for much longer. They are the better team, too, which means we get the better team with the law of averages on our side at plus money.
Now, let’s be clear. There’s a reason this is an underdog. The pitching matchup of Dodgers righty Dustin May (5-5, 4.52) vs. Giants righty Logan Webb (8-6, 2.62) favors the home team and, again, the Dodgers have lost six straight.
I think the Dodgers are too good to keep losing and while Webb is great, he’s not untouchable. The Giants are 5-4 in his home starts this season and he’s 5-6 with a 4.00 ERA in his career against the Dodgers.
Cubs at Yankees under 9 (+100)
We might be playing with fire, given the, um, firepower of these two offenses. Both are prone to offensive downturns, though, and this one feels like it for both sides to me.
Carlos Rodón takes the hill for the Yankees and the Cubs have had major issues against southpaw starters for weeks. It makes sense looking at their lineup. Switch-hitter Ian Happ is better from the left side, as are Kyle Tucker, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Michael Busch. This ballpark is worse for right-handed hitters, too.
The Cubs are going with a bullpen game, but their bullpen has been great. Starter Chris Flexen has been outstanding in short bursts with a 0.83 ERA.
I’m not saying this will be a duel with a 2-1 final score or anything, but something like 5-3 seems reasonable.
Home Run Play: TJ Friedl (+450)
It is hot and humid at Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park, a perfect recipe for home runs. The Rockies are in town, adding to the excitement.
Germán Márquez gets the ball for the visitors and has surrendered 11 home runs in 18 starts this year. Friedl has hit two homers off Márquez the only time they faced each other here.
Futures Play: Brent Rooker to win Home Run Derby +1000
This is a shot in the dark, but with four-digit odds, Rooker has the potential to win. He hit 39 home runs last season and has 19 so far this year. He’s also familiar with the area, growing up in Tennessee and playing at Mississippi State.
